Canada: Barley and other crops 2025/26 likely larger than earlier expectations

Canadian grain and oilseed production in 2025/26 was likely larger than earlier expectations, as warm temperatures and increased precipitation across the Prairies in August helped crop development, according to updated estimates from Statistics Canada released Sept. 17.

The largest increase in the latest model-based estimates was in wheat, moving to 36.62 million tonnes from an estimated 35.55 million tonnes in August. That would be up 1.9 per cent on the year and the largest wheat crop since 2013.

Of that total, durum production was raised to 6.54 million tonnes from 6.08 million in August and 6.38 million a year ago. Spring wheat came in at 26.61 million tonnes, up by 2.4 per cent from August but in line with the 26.52 million tonnes grown in 2024/25.

Canola production was raised to 20.03 million tonnes from 19.94 million tonnes in August. That compares with 19.24 million tonnes grown in 2024/25 and the five-year average of 18.26 million tonnes.

Barley production, at 8.23 million tonnes, is forecast to be up one per cent on the year, with oats up 0.4 per cent at 3.37 million tonnes.

Conditions in Eastern Canada were drier than normal through the growing season, reported StatCan.

Soybeans were one of the few crops forecast with smaller production in 2025/26. Soybeans were estimated at 7.13 million tonnes, which would be down by 5.7 per cent on the year but still above the five-year average of 6.74 million.

Estimated Canadian corn production, at 15.50 million tonnes, would be up by one per cent on the year, and 800,000 tonnes above the five-year average.