EU: Barley harvest forecast lowered to 49.9 mln tonnes due to ‘catastrophic situation in Spain’

Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for 2023/24 soft wheat production in the European Union on favourable conditions in most of the bloc but reduced its outlook for barley and maize crops, partly due to drought in Spain.

The consultancy said it now expects EU soft wheat output of 130.0 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, up from 128.9 million forecast in April and nearly 4% above 2022/23 production.

Regular rain since last month has helped crops in much of Europe, including in top EU grain producer France, after a dry winter.

However, Spain has mostly missed out on rain, with drought also exacerbated by early heatwaves.

Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for the next EU barley harvest to 49.9 million tonnes, from 51.6 million last month, now below 2022/23 production of 51.2 million.

"At the European level, barley is the cereal most affected by the catastrophic situation in Spain, traditionally a major producer of this crop," it said in a monthly cereal report.

Harvest prospects have also been curbed by bad weather in northern Europe, which prevented farmers from completing spring barley plantings, it added.

The consultancy reduced its maize 2023/24 production outlook to 62.1 million tonnes from 62.7 million seen in March, though that would be 19% above last year's drought-hit level.

As well as worsening conditions in Spain, maize prospects have been dented by heavy rain that has delayed planting in the eastern EU, it said.

In addition to the diminished harvest outlook, barley supplies will be curbed next season by lower than expected stocks after brisk French exports to China, Strategie Grains said.

The maize market will again be reliant on high imports to balance supply, whereas the EU faces another large wheat surplus, it added.

"Thus, a dichotomy exists in terms of market outlooks in Europe for 2023/24, with a very heavy situation looming for wheat, but near-equilibrium for barley and maize," it said.

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