World: Barley crop forecast for 2025 up by 1 mln tonnes

RMI Analytics’ latest global barley production forecast is increased by an additional 1 mln tonnes, reaching a total of 150.5 mln tonnes. This increase is attributed to better crop forecasts from key regions: Canada (+0.5), Australia (+0.2), Russia (+0.2), and Ukraine (+0.1 mln tonnes). This increase reflects higher than anticipated crop yields in the northern hemisphere, along with improved southern hemisphere prospects, the analysts said in their latest report.

On the demand side, the increase of +2.9 mln tonnes compared to crop ’24 is primarily due to heightened feed demand, which is largely driven by the expectation that barley remains competitive within the broader feed grain market.

Malt demand is expected to decrease further in crop'25, due to declining beer and whisky production.

The global balance of supply and demand continues to favour a substantial surplus on the supply
side. This increased level of supply security is expected to extend through crop '26, and potentially beyond, depending upon the speed of overall demand recovery.

Global barley price movements are rather unexciting at the moment, despite the excitement in wider grain markets of the US/China trade deal.

The underlying support for feed barley aligns with the trade news, while malting barley prices are steadier as Australian harvest continues and the overall supply continues to extend higher.

France remains very competitive for malting barley, while the feed barley market is becoming increasingly competitive. Canada’s malting barley price is down, as the origin moves to improve competitiveness in world markets.