EU: Barley production forecast at 58.031 mln tonnes this year, spring malting barley supplies seen as insufficient

The European Commission’s barley supply & demand balance estimate of August 24 pegs the EU’s barley carry-in stocks at 5.463 mln tonnes in 2017/18 versus 7.649 mln in 2016/17.

Production is forecast at 58.031 mln tonnes vs. 59.337 mln last year, domestic use forecast is 51.024 mln tonnes vs. 53.187 mln last year.

Exports (including malt) totalled 8.756 mln tonnes in 2016/17 and are forecast at 7 mln tonnes this year (the volume exported in July-August 23, however, was only 400 thousand tonnes).

The EU’s barley carry-out stocks are forecast at 6.070 mln tonnes vs. 5.463 mln last year.

Spring malting barley supplies in the EU are insufficient. The harvest is finished on the continent, and advances well in the U.K. and Scandinavia, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their September report.

Qualities are good in France, Denmark and Sweden, but problematic to poor in Germany, the U.K., Central Europe and the Mediterranean countries.

According to the Gauger analysts, supplies will be extremely tight, higher protein contents and lower sieving parameters (in some countries) must become acceptable. The most dangerous item is the weather damage with open and hidden sprouting putting in question the germinative capacity in the course of the campaign. Between half and 1 mln tonnes of spring barley have protein contents in excess of the usual specifications, max. 11.5% for brewers and 10.5% for distillers. Sellers’ and buyers’ ideas on the necessary import demand in all countries with disappointing crops are rather far apart, of course.

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