Malaysia: Beer prices expected to rise between 3% and 15% from November

Beer prices in Malaysia are expected to rise between 3% and 15% from November, depending on alcohol content and distribution channel, with the just-announced 10% excise duty hike on alcohol, according to analysts, The Edge Malaysia reported on October 13.

With the excise duty due to go up by 10% to RM192.50 from RM175 per litre for pure alcohol, alcoholic beverages with higher alcohol content are set to see the most increase.

CGS International estimated that beer prices would need to rise by around 3% to offset the higher tax, while RHB Research foresees a 4% to 5% increase in prices. CIMB Securities said the retail price increase could range between 5% and 15%, depending on the alcohol content and distribution channel.

The increase in excise duty is the first such adjustment since 2016.

Brewery stocks were down in the morning session on October 13, when the market reopened after last Friday's budget announcement, extending losses that they have seen since May on tax hike fears. CGS International said the two brewers' combined market value has fallen 20% since late May.

Heineken Malaysia Bhd's share price dropped as much as 46 sen or 2.2% to RM20.34 during the morning session. At market close, the stock settled at RM20.40, valuing the stock at RM6.16 billion. Year to date, the stock is down 15.4%

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd’s share price closed 14 sen or 1.2% lower at RM16.52 — recovering slightly from its day’s low of RM16.30 — giving the company a market capitalisation of RM5.05 billion. Year to date, the stock is down 20%.

Analysts believe the hike could dent demand in the immediate term.

RHB Research however noted that it will likely normalise later, noting that the previous excise duty hike in 2016 did not lead to an adverse earnings impact on both brewers.

Heineken and Carlsberg recorded earnings growth of 9% and 15% respectively, despite higher product prices, it noted.

Beer average selling prices have been raised twice in recent years, namely April 2024 and August 2025.

Both RHB Research and CGS International said brewers are still worth investing in. RHB Research in particular said margin expansion and premiumisation strategies will continue to be the primary drivers for earnings growth and high dividend payout.

CGS International’s top pick is Heineken for its pure exposure to Malaysia, saying it trades at an undemanding 12.8 times financial year ending Dec 31, 2026 (FY2026) price-earnings and offers an attractive 7.0% FY2025 dividend yield.