Australia: Australia remains most competitive origin for malting barley despite higher prices

The combination of limited rainfall and the addition of a significant frost event has reduced a bit the optimism for barley crop development in Australia, RMI Analytics said in their early October report.

While northern New South Wales has an outstanding crop and with harvest starting to advance, this supply is nearly secured. However, the concerns about dry condition in South Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales have reduced the upper-end potential for barley production. Lastly, reductions in Western Australia wheat are beginning to surface but for now the Western Australia barley crop estimate is unchanged. RMI Analytics’ production estimate for Australian barley is down by 0.6 mln to 11.7 mln tonnes, with a further reduction possible, once the full impact of the frost is fully determined.

Export volumes are reduced due to the expected pull back on Chinese barley imports where Australia has regained the majority market share. Australian barley prices have moved up slightly, as dry conditions prevail in South Australia and parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales. In addition, a recent widespread frost event across the southeast has put more doubt into the final crop production. Farmers were already reluctant sellers and now with yields being negatively impacted by weather conditions, liquidity is expected to remain limited. Domestic farmer prices have moved higher in the past days, giving further insight into the market concern about yields being reduced by frost.

Recently, another global malting barley tender from a major brewer has reportedly been awarded to Australia (again). This is further proof that Australia remains the most competitive origin for malting barley, and remains the case despite price moves higher.