Argentina: Barley crop forecast maintained at 5.4 mln tonnes

Barley harvest has advanced across Buenos Aires province, working around some light rain. Most areas are over 50% harvested, with the south-east 35-40% complete and the next 7-10 days should allow harvest to wrap up, RMI Analytics report.

Yields results are very good, with reports of lower protein, lighter test weights, and slightly lower sizing (calibrations). Based upon these good yield prospects the analysts had earlier raised their production forecast for Argentinean barley to 5.4 mln tonnes and have kept it at that level.

Barley export taxes were reduced again in December to 7.5% (from 9.5%), fulfilling a campaign promise from the government. The decrease in export taxes could lead to a decline in farmer sales, in anticipation of additional tax cuts. Conversely, better than expected yields might prompt farmer selling, particularly for feed quality.

Middle East feed barley demand remains steadily present, supporting prices, while malting prices remain stable. FAS prices are up, partly due to the export tax cut.