Africa: Beer market set to see 0.8% CAGR growth for the next decade

Driven by increasing demand for beer in Africa, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 16B litres by the end of 2035, IndexBox said in its latest report.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $14.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

In 2024, consumption of beer decreased by -0.2% to 15B litres, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, consumption attained the maximum volume at 15B litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The size of the beer market in Africa declined to $12.4B in 2024, falling by -1.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Overall, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $12.6B in 2023, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were South Africa (3.3B litres), Nigeria (1.8B litres) and Ethiopia (1.2B litres), together accounting for 43% of total consumption. Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Botswana, Tanzania, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya and Uganda lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Botswana (with a CAGR of +19.2%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Africa ($2.4B), Ethiopia ($1.4B) and Nigeria ($1.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2024, with a combined 42% share of the total market. Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Botswana, Tanzania, Uganda, Cote d'Ivoire and Kenya lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%. Botswana, with a CAGR of +18.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, the highest levels of beer per capita consumption was registered in Botswana (196 litres per person), followed by South Africa (54 litres per person), Angola (30 litres per person) and Cote d'Ivoire (15 litres per person), while the world average per capita consumption of beer was estimated at 9.9 litres per person. From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the beer per capita consumption in Botswana totaled +17.0%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: South Africa (-1.0% per year) and Angola (-6.6% per year). Production Africa's Production of Beer Beer production was estimated at 14B litres in 2024, approximately reflecting the year before.

The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 9.1% against the previous year. The volume of production peaked at 14B litres in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure. In value terms, beer production shrank to $11.7B in 2024 estimated in export price.

Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 16%. The level of production peaked at $12.3B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were South Africa (3.3B litres), Nigeria (1.8B litres) and Ethiopia (1.2B litres), together accounting for 45% of total production. Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Cote d'Ivoire, Uganda and Mozambique lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Mozambique (with a CAGR of +11.0%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, purchases abroad of beer decreased by -8.1% to 929M litres, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, imports continue to indicate a slight reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 76%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at 1.1B litres in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, beer imports contracted to $538M in 2024. In general, imports showed a perceptible slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 42% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $710M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In 2024, Botswana (237M litres), distantly followed by South Africa (145M litres), Zambia (99M litres) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (53M litres) represented the largest importers of beer, together creating 58% of total imports. Equatorial Guinea (39M litres), Burkina Faso (31M litres), Namibia (31M litres), Cote d'Ivoire (31M litres), South Sudan (30M litres) and Tanzania (24M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Botswana (with a CAGR of +36.2%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. In value terms, South Africa ($96M), Zambia ($51M) and Botswana ($50M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, with a combined 37% share of total imports. Equatorial Guinea, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Namibia and Burkina Faso lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%. In terms of the main importing countries, South Sudan, with a CAGR of +15.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Beer exports skyrocketed to 308M litres in 2024, increasing by 24% compared with the year before. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 42% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at 367M litres in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, beer exports soared to $218M in 2024. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a perceptible reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 44% against the previous year.

Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $285M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure. Exports By Country South Africa was the main exporting country with an export of around 119M litres, which amounted to 39% of total exports. Angola (44M litres) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 14% share, followed by Uganda (9.5%), Mozambique (8.9%), Zimbabwe (6.9%) and Togo (6.1%). Nigeria (13M litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Angola (+140.2%), Mozambique (+74.5%), Zimbabwe (+46.4%), Uganda (+18.7%) and Togo (+13.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Angola emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +140.2% from 2013-2024. By contrast, Nigeria (-3.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of South Africa, Angola, Mozambique, Uganda, Zimbabwe and Togo increased by +17, +14, +8.9, +8, +6.8 and +4.6 percentage points, respectively.

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