North America: Canada barley crop forecast up on beneficial rains across several key regions

Beneficial moisture has arrived across several key North America’s barley regions. Not all barley areas received moisture, but the general situation has improved and, as a result, RMI Analytics’ barley crop 2024 forecast for Canada is increased by 0.7 mln tonnes to 9.3 mln.

In the rest of the region, the US barley crop is expected to drop on lower planted area, and Mexico’s production is expected to rebound after two rather difficult crop years.

Malt demand in Mexico is increasing, and new malt capacity is raising local barley needs. Any 2024 crop in Mexico or US barley production could trigger a further import need (e.g. Canada to US, global imports to Mexico).

Canada’s February barley exports recovered with stronger shipments to China, but overall pace trails year-ago and the 5-year average levels. RMI’s export forecast for Canadian barley is reduced to 2.2 mln tonnes, and ending stocks are increasing. A combination of higher production and lower exports leaves a more comfortable barley supply situation across North America.

While Canada’s malting barley price is flat, there is a small increase in feed barley prices. Export levels improved during February but global competition remains fierce and the analysts’ crop year estimate is reduced by 0.2 mln tonnes. Farmer contracting is underway for reduced tonnage and the need is reduced. Domestic feed barley prices are sideways, as farmers are showing an interest to sell. US corn imports are still keeping a lid on the local feed market. The cattle feeder is very well covered and not in a need to buy huge quantities of feed barley at present, it is reported.

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