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CASTLE MALTING NEWS in partnership with Polish
10 November, 2022

Barley news Canada: 2022-23 barley crop expected to increase by 35% versus last year’s record low

For 2021-22, the Canadian barley supply and demand situation includes sharply lower carry-in stocks, production and supply, as well as significantly reduced domestic feed consumption and exports, when compared to last year. Carry-out stocks hit a new record low. The Lethbridge feed barley average price for the crop year hit a new record high, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their October report.

For 2022-23, Canadian barley production was estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) at 9.43 million tonnes (Mt), 35% and 6%, respectively, higher than last year’s record low and the pre-2021 five-year average.

Provincial yields were averaged at 3.85 tonnes/hectare (t/ha), 3.45 t/ha and 4.23 t/ha, respectively, for Alberta (AB), Saskatchewan (SK) and Manitoba (MB). In comparison, the AB provincial crop report released on October 4th had barley yield at 4.02 t/ha for the province. The SK crop report released on October 3rd had barley yield at 3.34 t/ha for the province. The MB crop report released on September 27th had barley yields ranging between 2.69-5.38 t/ha (middle point at 4.04 t/ha), varying widely by seeding date and rainfall.

Based on STC’s estimates, the increase in production is expected to offset the historically low carry-in stocks and smaller imports, which will result in the 2022-23 supply increasing by 27% year on year to nearly 10 Mt, but 6% below the pre-2021 five-year average.

The expanded supply will support domestic use (including industrial and feed use) and exports in 2022-23. Carry-out stocks are projected to rise from 2021-22 to 0.55 Mt, which is still a tight level.

According to STC, barley exports in August 2022, the first month of the 2022-23 crop year, were pegged at 93 thousand tonnes (Kt), versus 11 Kt in August 2021 and 97 Kt for the previous five-year average in the same month. Of the total exports, about 57% were shipped to China and 43% to the US. Barley malt exports in August 2022 neared 42 Kt, which is lower than the 53 Kt exported in August 2021 and the 49 Kt for the previous fiveyear average. Of the total exports, about 55% were shipped to the US, 25% to Japan and 14% to Mexico.

The average price is predicted to decline from the record levels of 2021-22 to $400/t due to expectations for a recovery in domestic feed grain supply from last year’s drought. However, it will remain historically high, largely underpinned by strong corn prices and robust demand. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Small Grains 2022 Summary report confirmed a large 2022 barley output in the US. At 174 million bushels (Mbu), it is larger than the last estimate of 158 Mbu and up 45% from the previous year. Yield recovered to 71.7 bushels/acre (bu/ac), up 11.4 bu/ac from 2021. Total seeded area was 2.95 million acres, up 9% from 2021. Harvested area was 2.43 million acres, up 22% on the year.

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