Australia: Barley crop still expected to reach 15 mln tonnes this crop year

Harvest on Australia’s east coast has encountered some delay due to rain the past two weeks but in general clearer weather is forecast which should allow harvest to advance. In Western Australia, there has been less rain, which has led to a fast pace of harvest, evidenced by CBH receiving over 1 mln tonnes (all crops) in one week. RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Although anecdotal, yields in Western Australia are reported as good and slightly better than expected. On top of a very good New South Wales result, a good supply of malting barley is being established, as we await South Australia’s and Victoria’s outcomes. RMI Analytics’ crop estimate for Australia is unchanged at 15.0 mln tonnes. This result continues an amazing barley story for the nation over the 30 years. Clearly, barley is viewed favourably by farmers, aided in part by good export levels after the end to the Chinese tariff, and from the very good development of a new variety pipeline.

A bit of harvest related pressure is hitting barley prices, except in Geelong where prices are stable due to slow harvest. The malting barley premium is rather narrow and varies slightly by port zone (e.g. higher in Geelong versus Kwinana). Improving weather and farmers wrapping up canola should allow barley harvest to advance at a good pace, which could more pressure on prices in near term.