Canada: Barley crop seen slightly higher than last year

For 2025-26, Statistics Canada (STC) estimates 2.5 million hectares (Mha) were seeded to barley in its June seeded acreage report; this represents a decrease of 4% year-over-year (y/y) and 16% below the five-year average. By province, Alberta accounts for 54% of the national area, followed by Saskatchewan (37%) and Manitoba (5%).

STC’s September model-based estimates put 2025 barley production at 8.2 Mt, slightly higher than last year, thanks to an expected improvement in the average yield, despite a smaller sown area and a higher abandonment rate. The Prairie barley harvest is complete; overall, above-average quality and strong yields have been reported.

Supply is projected at 9.5 Mt, little changed y/y, thanks to carry-in stocks at an eight-year high and higher-than-expected production, which offset the decline in imports. However, supply for 2025 remains 4% below the five-year average. Total domestic use is forecast to increase on higher feed demand. Total exports are forecast to be little changed y/y, but well below average.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.0 Mt, down y/y, but still well above average.

According to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), total exports of barley for the first fourteen weeks of the current crop year have reached slightly over 1.0 Mt, up sharply compared with those exported in the same period last year and the fiveyear average. The increase is primarily due to strong exports recorded in September and October, despite a sharp decline in recent weeks.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at C$270/tonne (/t), down C$26/t from 2024-25, partly due to pressure from expected higher feed grain supplies.

Worldwide, Australia’s barley production for 2025-26 is forecast by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) at 14.6 Mt. This is up 10% y/y and well above the five-year average. The EU’s barley production for 2025-26 is forecast by the European Commission at 56.4 Mt, up sharply y/y and well above the five-year average. US barley production for 2025-26 is estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) at slightly over 3.0 Mt, down notably y/y and well below the five-year average.