Canada: 2024-25 barley supply seen 3% below previous crop year’s

For 2024-25, Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% from the previous crop year, mainly due to lower production from a smaller area, although carry-in stocks are sharply above last year’s level and the five-year average.

Compared to the five-year average, 2024-25 supply is down 8%.

Total exports are projected at 3.0 Mt (approximately three-quarters from grain exports and around one-quarter from product exports), down 2% from last season and 11% below the five-year average. China remains the largest destination of Canadian barley grain exports, representing almost 70% of the exported volume, followed by Japan (20%) and the U.S. (<10%). The U.S. is the largest destination of Canadian barley product exports, representing almost 60% of the volume, followed by Japan (>20%), Mexico (>10%), and South Korea (<5%).

Total domestic use is projected at 5.7 Mt, 3% higher year-over-year (y/y), despite a decline in feed use. Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.8 Mt, down 31% from last year and close to historic lows.

Statistics Canada (STC) reported that Canadian barley inventory as of March 31 stood at 3.1 Mt, reflecting little change from a year ago but 8% above the five-year average. Total exports (grain and product) during the August 2024 – March 2025 period were higher from a year ago. Total domestic use was lower, mainly linked to reduced animal feed use.

The Lethbridge average barley price recovered from a multi-year low of approximately C$255/tonne (/t) in August, reaching over $310/t in April. The average price for the entire crop year is projected at C$295/t, the lowest since 2021-22.

For 2025-26, Canadian barley area is estimated at 2.5 million hectares (Mha), according to STC’s March seeding intention report. This is 2% lower than the previous year and 14% below the previous five-year average. Amongst the three Canadian Prairie provinces, Alberta and Manitoba are expected to seed less barley this spring compared to last year, while Saskatchewan is expected to plant more.

Production is projected at 8.1 Mt, down 1% from 2024-25 due to smaller area along with forecast average yields.

Total supply is projected at 9.0 Mt, down 5% y/y due to lower production and carry-in stocks; it is also 10% below the five-year average.

Partly due to the expected smaller supplies, forecasts for exports, total domestic use, and carry-out stocks are put at lower levels than those projected for 2024-25.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at C$285/t, down C$10/t from 2024-25, partly due to pressure from expected lower U.S. corn prices.

Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects 2025-26 world barley production at 145.8 Mt, up 2% y/y, led by increases for the EU (+ 2.7 Mt) and Russia (+1.8 Mt), offsetting declines for Kazakhstan, Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine.

World barley imports are forecast to show little changed, with a noticeable increase for China offsetting declines elsewhere. U.S. barley imports are predicted to be unchanged y/y and remain low, compared to those over the last five years.

World barley consumption is expected to fall, with feed use to decline and other uses to increase.

Global barley ending stocks for 2025-26 are projected at 18.4 Mt, down noticeably y/y and well below the five-year average. Stocks in the major exporting countries of Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine are projected to fall sharply from 2024-25 and the five-year average, while the EU and Russia will experience an improved situation.

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