North America: Barley planting progressing very well under near-perfect conditions

Planting of North America’s barley crop’25 is progressing very well under near-perfect conditions. In the US overall progress is 50% complete, led by Idaho at 85% - and all key states are ahead of the pace from last-year and the five-year average. The same is occurring in Canada as the weather is cooperating, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

Under this favourable start, the achievement of an 8.9 mln tonnes crop remains realistic. However, timely rains are needed in June/July to continue good development, with disastrous crop’21 a recent reminder where a very good start can still fail.

The pace of barley exports from Canada remains at the bottom of the 5-year average (aligned with crop’23). Current volumes ensure the export projection for crop’24 is achievable, by a very small margin.

While the uncertainty surrounding US trade tariffs persists, the newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Carney met President Trump last week in Washington. Hope persists that a medium term solution to the trade dispute can be found, thereby removing much of the disruptive impact. In the meantime, the general lack of demand is showing up in a limited bid from maltsters, and reduced barley planted area in the US due to lower needs.

Meanwhile farmers continue to plant on an accelerated pace and for now there is no major change in planted area expected. At the same time, timely rain is needed as soil moisture is not excessive.

Domestic feed barley prices are drifting higher in Canada, as farmers are busy seeding crops, creating in the process a reduced level of offers, but barley supply is available and low liquidity is viewed as being very short-term. Cattle feeders appear well-covered which limits demand in the short term, and is likely to cap any barley price movement to the upside.

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