World: Global barley outlook is for higher production, consumption, and trade in 2024/25
Global coarse grain production in 2024/25 is projected at a record high as larger production of barley, millet, mixed grains, sorghum, oats, and rye more than offset a decline in corn, USDA said in their May report.
Coarse grain production in the European Union, Brazil, and China is forecast higher while the United States, Ukraine, and Argentina are down.
Relative to 2023/24, global coarse grain consumption is expected to grow, primarily on higher feed consumption as FSI consumption is little changed.
Coarse grains ending stocks are virtually unchanged, with increases for sorghum and mixed grain balanced by declines for rye, corn, and barley.
The global barley outlook is for higher production, consumption, and trade. Production is forecast higher (at 149.91 mln tonnes vs 142.11 mln in 2023/24) as larger crops in the European Union, Iraq, Canada, and Syria offset smaller crops in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Morocco, and the United States.
Global consumption is forecast at 149.998 mln tonnes - larger than the 2023/24 estimate of 144.233 mln tonnes, with greater consumption expected for both feed and FSI use.
Global trade is up (at 29.079 mln tonnes vs 28.82 mln in 2023/24), as larger exports in the European Union, Argentina, and Kazakhstan outweigh a cut to Australia. With global production nearly equalling global consumption, global ending stocks are projected to be virtually flat by the end of 2024/25.
Australia barley export forecast is down 1.6 million tons from the revised 2023/24 estimate to 5.4 million on lower exportable supplies. Australia barley has seen strong import demand from East Asia, particularly China, as an affordable feed grain. However, tightening stocks after high 2023/24 demand and below 5-year average production will likely limit Australia’s barley exports.
European Union barley is forecast up 1.3 million tons to 7.5 million. Barley production is forecast to increase nearly 7.0 million tons from the previous year. With Australia forecast for tighter exportable supplies, EU barley is expected to fill some of that gap.
China barley imports are expected to moderate from the larger 2023/24 estimate, as greater world barley supplies are offset by a weaker production outlook in Australia, China’s primary trade partner.
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