France: Farm office lowers soft wheat exports, raises barley shipments forecast

Farm office FranceAgriMer on March 13 lowered its outlook for 2023/24 French soft wheat exports, leading it to make another upward revision to its forecast for end of season stocks.

In its supply and demand outlook, FranceAgriMer cut its projection of 2023/24 French soft wheat exports outside the European Union to 10.15 million metric tons from last month’s forecast of 10.25 million tons.

The estimate for intra-EU soft wheat exports was lowered to 6.19 million tons from 6.32 million tons.

As a result, French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season are now projected at 3.74 million tons, up from 3.51 million forecast last month and nearly 47% above 2022/23 stocks.

FranceAgriMer last month said that its previous stocks forecast represented a 19-year high.

Large supplies in Europe and stiff competition from Black Sea suppliers Russia and Ukraine have pushed European wheat prices to 3-1/2 year lows in recent weeks.

In contrast, FranceAgriMer cut its outlook for French barley stocks at the end of the season to 1.75 million tons from the 2.11 million tons projected last month. The forecast for barley exports outside the EU was raised by 0.5 million tons to 3.4 million tons.

The reduced barley stocks projection was still 71.5% above last season’s level.

In maize, 2023/24 stocks were forecast at 2.44 million tons, up from 2.35 million tons in February and now 47% above the 2022/23 level.

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