Australia: Barley crop estimate remains unchanged at 11.19 mln tonnes

The Australian barley crop result remains unchanged at 11.19 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics reported earlier in February.

With harvest wrapped up, the trade’s focus is shifting toward shipment execution of strong exports to China. So far an estimated 1.8 mln tonnes of barley have already shipped to China since the tariff was rescinded.

The weather is cooperating by providing valuable moisture to summer crops, and importantly replenishing the soil moisture profile ahead of crop 2024, especially on the east coast where soil moisture reserves are critical to crop development.

Western Australia leads the nation’s regional barley production at an estimated 4 mln tonnes, which supports the rebounding supply of barley to China, mainly due to the ocean freight advantage held by Western Australia over the other port origins. Although selection rates dropped as harvest wrapped up, there is a good quantity of malting barley.

Australian barley prices continue to gradually grind lower in a quiet market, which is expected to continue with the Chinese New Year celebrations. Barley exports are creating much-needed barley movement as domestic barley demand is weak (one partial cargo of malting barley to Europe was reported), as some maltsters are rumoured to be reducing malt capacity.

Farmers have been selling some quantities of barley (and canola) for cashflow needs and also because the crop outcome was generally positive. Fertilizer prices have dropped, which helps 2024 economics.

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