Canada: 2020-21 barley exports projected at 3.7 mln tonnes

For 2020-21, Canadian barley exports are projected at 3.7 million tonnes (Mt), 21% higher than last year and the highest level since 2007-08, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their March report.

Statistics Canada (STC) reported that total exports of barley for the first half of the crop year increased by 41% compared to the same period a year ago, including a 58% rise in exports of raw barley grain and an 8% drop in exports of barley product. With respect to the export destinations, about 91% of the overseas sales of raw barley grain were shipped to China and the rest to Japan and the US. For barley products, approximately 50% went to the US, 40% went to Japan and Mexico, the remaining went to other overseas markets.

Total domestic use is projected to increase by 2%, driven by strong feed use. Industrial use is expected to decrease slightly.

Carry-out stocks are projected to decline to 0.6 Mt, a record low, based on expected robust exports and solid domestic feed use, despite a good supply at the beginning of the crop year.

The average price of feed barley for 2020-21 is expected to rise by 12% from 2019-20 to C$260/t, as a result of strong demand for exports and domestic use, as well as supportive corn prices.

In the March update, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised up the 2020-21 world barley production estimate by more than 2.0 Mt, largely owing to a 2.0 Mt increase in 2020-21 Australian barley production estimate, compared to the February estimates. The world demand estimate was revised up by more than 1.6 Mt based on increased consumption estimates for Saudi Arabia, Australia and Algeria. World carry-out stocks are expected to be at a four-year high.

For 2021-22, the area seeded to barley in Canada is forecast to increase by 4% from 2020-21 to 3.2 million hectares (Mha), as a result of good prices and historically low carry-in stocks.

With projections for harvest area to be up by 4% and yields to be down by 3%, production is forecast to rise by 2%. Supply is forecast to drop by 1%, but will still be the second highest level since 2010.

Exports are expected to be lower than the previous year, but still strong, as purchases by Canada’s major barley importers are anticipated to remain strong.

Domestic use is anticipated to drop on lower feed use.

Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise but still be considered historically tight.

The average price of feed barley for 2021-22 is forecast to decrease slightly, based on an anticipated increase in carry-out stocks as a result of lower demand. In addition, forecasts for a lower 2021-22 corn price in the US is expected to pressure Canadian barley prices.

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