Australia: Bumper barley and wheat harvests predicted for MY 2025-26 in Australia

Bumper barley and wheat harvests are predicted for the 2025-26 marketing year in Australia, according to a recent report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), World Grain reported on November 25.

The FAS forecast barley production at a record 15 million tonnes, representing a 27% increase over the 10-year average of 11.8 million tonnes and a 2-million-tonne upward revision from the previous forecast issued three months earlier.

“This reflects better-than-expected growing conditions across most regions and strong early yield reports from Queensland and northern New South Wales, where harvest is already underway,” the FAS said.

Australia is perennially the world’s largest exporter and among the top three producers of barley. It is projected to export 8.3 million tonnes this year, unchanged from the 2024-25 season but well above the 10-year average, the FAS said.

The excellent growing conditions are also having a positive impact on Australia’s wheat crop, with the FAS projecting the third largest output in the country’s history in 2025-26.

Wheat production is pegged at 36 million tonnes, up 1.9 million tonnes from the previous year and 31% above the 10-year average. The large harvest is anticipated despite planted area being estimated at nearly 3% lower than in 2024-25. The lower plantings are projected to be more than offset by an 8.5% increase in average yield, the FAS said.

“The upward revision reflects average to above average rainfall in July and August, which boosted yield potential across major producing regions despite a late start to the season,” the FAS said. “Continued timely rainfall through September and October in Western Australia further supported strong yield prospects.”

Wheat exports for the major global supplier are forecast at 27 million tonnes, well above the 10-year average of 19.7 million tonnes.

Australia’s wheat and barley harvests generally run from October through February.