North America: Canadian barley crop forecast remains stable with positive quality results

A degree of clearing in weather conditions has allowed North America’s barley harvest to slowly progress but some further heavy rain is forecast in Montana.

RMI Analytics’ Canadian barley production remains at 8.2 mln tonnes which is slightly above the StatsCanada official estimate of 8.0 mln tonnes. Crop results are reportedly positive, with central Alberta looking quite good while Saskatchewan has more variability due to uneven rain events during the growing season. In the USA, at the end of August, barley harvest was 72% completed versus a 5-Yr average of 75%. Crop ratings are at the 5-Yr average of Good/Excellent ratings but with some variability across key areas.

Montana’s ratings are at the low end of the 5-Yr average, while North Dakota is at the upper end of the 5-Yr average and Idaho falls more or less at the long term average, aided by irrigated production.

Canadian barley exports for crop’24 have slowed, with volumes to China mostly disappearing entirely from the picture.

Even though harvest pace has been slow, the impact of harvest pressure on Canadian barley prices is starting to appear, with export prices declining. The arrival of harvest is now starting to drive domestic feed barley prices lower, with any lingering old crop premium evaporating, and crop’24/crop’25 prices now converging. Domestic feed barley prices are competitive with US corn imports, increasing RMI’s domestic crop’25 feed barley usage estimate for Canada.