Australia: Barley crop forecast up on expectations of increased area

The situation continues to develop within an environment of two extremes in Australia, with dryness a key concern in Western Australia, South Australia, and parts of western Victoria while the northern east coast is experiencing wet conditions, RMI Analytics reported earlier this month.

Barley seeding is nearly 75% complete with farmers shifting from canola due to dry conditions. Total barley area could increase by 10%. Despite the yield risk in the areas noted, this shift to higher barley area leads to a net increase (+0.4 mln tonnes) in RMI’s barley crop forecast to 12 mln tonnes. While crop potential is higher, the current dryness situation and long-term forecasts are calling for a risk of lower in-season moisture, a further increase to production is premature.

With good rains in Western Australia, South Australia, and Victoria the upside is 12.5 mln tonnes. In a longer term view, barley remains in a very good place at the upper end of the 40-year history.

Export pace remains good (China) and continues with a solid lineup of vessels in place for May.

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