Canada: 2023-24 barley production estimated at 8.9 mln tonnes

For 2023-24, Canadian barley production is estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) at 8.9 million tonnes (Mt). This is down 11% year-over-year (y/y) and 4% below the previous five-year average, mainly reflecting notable output declines in Alberta and Saskatchewan, as a result of significantly reduced yields. As a result, supply is estimated at 9.7 Mt, down 8% y/y and 6% below average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in its January report.

Total domestic use is forecast at 6.2 Mt, up by 3% y/y due to higher industrial use along with stable feed use. Exports are predicted at 2.8 Mt, down 28% y/y and 17% below average, primarily reflecting expected lower exports of barley grain. Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.75 Mt, up by 6% y/y and in line with the average.

In the first four months (August – November) of the current crop year, Canada exported 786 thousand tonnes (Kt) of barley. This volume is significantly lower than those exported in the same period for the past three years and below the previous five-year average. It is worth noting that exports in November were strong and reached 390 Kt, accounting for almost half of the total exports. The main destination was China, accounting for more than 90% of the volume. The majority of the remaining exports went to the US with a small amount to Japan.

Malt exports during the four-month period were 184 Kt, which is up by 11% and 4% from last year and the five-year average, respectively. The major destinations have been the US (accounting for 55% of total product exports), Japan (24%), Mexico (12%), and South Korea (7%).

The feed barley cash price in the Lethbridge, Alberta, feedlot region continued to decline in December and was slightly below C$320/tonne (t) in the first week of 2024, the lowest level since the end of April 2020. For 2023-24, the average Lethbridge barley price is projected at C$335/tonne (/t), lower than the highs seen in the previous two years. Nevertheless, this level remains historically high.

Worldwide, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) January supply and demand report shows an approximate 1.0 Mt (2%) decrease in the 2023 barley production estimate for the EU and an increase of 0.2 Mt (3%) for Ukraine, with the export outlook unchanged for the world’s major barley exporting countries and an increase of 0.1 Mt (5%) for Ukraine. The global demand estimate was lowered by 0.8 Mt to 145 Mt, vs 150 Mt for last year and the five-year average. The global ending stock estimate was raised by 0.3 Mt to 18 Mt, vs 20 Mt for last year and the five-year average.

For 2024-25, Canadian barley area is projected at 2.8 million hectares (Mha), down 5% y/y and the lowest in six years, primarily based on assumptions of a decline in returns, gloomy export prospects, and strong area competition from other crops.

Production is forecast to increase by 4% to 9.3 Mt, supported by a return to normal yield potential. The expected increases in production and carry-in stocks will compensate lower imports and push supply up by 4% to 10.1 Mt.

Total domestic use is forecast to rise due to increased supply and higher feed use.

Exports are projected to remain stable due to strong competition from major barley exporting countries.

Due to larger supply, carry-out stocks are projected to increase by 7% to 0.8 Mt, which is also 9% above the previous five-year average.

The Lethbridge cash feed barley price is forecast at C$310/t, down C$25/t y/y and the lowest in four years, although it is still above the levels seen before 2021-22.

Worldwide, 2024 barley production in the EU, the world’s largest barley exporter, is expected to see a sharp recovery from 2023. For the US, the USDA projects a stable barley supply for 2024-25, as a result of expected declines in production and imports offset by an increase in beginning stocks. Additionally, a large 2024-25 barley output in Australia and the Black Sea region is also anticipated.

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