EU: European Commission lowers outlook for barley and maize crops

The European Commission has increased its monthly forecasts for this year’s European Union soft wheat and rapeseed harvests, while lowering its outlook for barley and maize, data posted by the EU’s executive showed.

For soft wheat, the EU’s main cereal crop, usable production in 2023/24 is now expected at 131.5 million tonnes, up from 130.2 million projected in late April and well above 125.7 million harvested last year, the Commission’s data showed.

For rapeseed, the EU’s most produced oilseed crop, 2023/24 output was forecast at 20.2 million tonnes against 20.0 million a month earlier and 19.5 million in 2022/23.

In contrast, the Commission lowered its forecasts for barley production, to 52.0 million tonnes from 52.2 million a month ago, and for maize output, to 64.1 million tonnes from 64.4 million.

The revised 2023/24 forecasts were still above 2022/23 levels of 51.5 million tonnes for barley and 52.1 million for maize.

Like last month, the Commission said in its supply and demand update that it had reduced sharply its cereal production outlook for Spain, which has endured severe drought, with a near 13% cut following a reduction of almost 20% in April.

But it increased its overall cereal crop outlook for top grower France by over 1% and Romania by 4%, it said.

Projected EU soft wheat exports in 2023/24 were lowered to 32.0 million tonnes from 32.5 million last month, while expected soft wheat exports in 2022/23 were kept unchanged at 31 million tonnes.

Forecast soft wheat stocks in 2022/23 were raised to 19.9 million from 19.6 million last month, reflecting a 0.5 million upward revision to imports now expected at 8.5 million tonnes.

Expected maize imports this season were revised up to 24.5 million tonnes from 24.0 million previously, while forecast maize imports next season were maintained at 17 million tonnes.

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