Canada: Canada barley seeded area estimate below March forecast
Statistics Canada released their updated 2021 seeded area estimates on June 29 putting barley seeded area at 8.296 mln acres (3.36 mln hectares) - an increase of 9.7% over 2020 seeded area, but below their March estimate of 8.613 mln acres (3.49 mln ha). The estimates in their Principal Field Crop Areas June report are based on a survey of producers conducted in May and June.
In their last outlook report on June 17, Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada used average yields of 70 bushels/acre, coupled with earlier StatCan area estimates, to forecast a 12.0 mln tonne barley crop for Canada. Keeping the 70 bushel yield, and using the new area estimates with typical abandonment rates, would imply an 11.5 mln tonne barley crop. However with current severe dryness and heat being experienced across the Prairies, yield prospects in many areas are diminishing quickly, and without precipitation in the very near future Canadas barley crop may end up below the 2020 output of 10.7 mln tonnes.
The June 2021 Field Crop Survey, which collects information on field crop seeded areas in Canada, was conducted from May 14 to June 11, 2021, with approximately 25,000 farms. They were asked to report their seeded areas of grain, oilseeds and special crops.
June seeded acres are subject to updates from subsequent surveys during the current crop year. Data on final acreages for 2021 will be released on December 3, 2021, and will be subject to revision for two years.
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