China: Malt market forecast to expand to 13 mln tonnes by 2035

China's malt market is forecast to expand to 13 million tonnes by 2035, with consumption reaching 11 million tonnes in 2024 despite a market value contraction to $6.1 billion, IndexBox said in their latest report.

Domestic production increased to 12 million tonnes, while exports surged dramatically by 41% to 612,000 tonnes, primarily to Thailand, Mexico, and Nigeria.

Import volumes remained modest at 12,000 tonnes but saw significant value growth to $12 million, mainly sourced from Germany, Australia, and the UK.

The market demonstrates strong export momentum with Thailand as the largest export destination, while import prices stabilized at $952 per tonne.

Driven by increasing demand for malt in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 13M tonnes by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $8.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

In 2024, approx. 11M tonnes of malt were consumed in China; with an increase of 2% on 2023. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 3.7%. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The size of the malt market in China contracted to $6.1B in 2024, which is down by -9.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Malt consumption peaked at $6.8B in 2023, and then shrank in the following year.