North America: Canada malting barley quality reported as normal to above normal versus five-year average

Harvest in western Canada is concluding, with less than 5% remaining but amidst some rain delays in parts of Saskatchewan, while Alberta was mostly dry, RMI Analytics reported last week.

Barley quality in both Saskatchewan and Alberta is reported as normal to above normal for malting quality versus the five-year average. Yields are slightly better than forecast, leading the analysts to raise their production forecast for Canadian barley by 0.3 mln tonnes to 8.5 mln tonnes.

The US reports very good yields, with some drought stress raising protein levels a bit in dryland areas, and irrigated regions experienced sprout damage but overall supply remains good.

Over the last four weeks barley exports moved higher, led initially by Japan, but now Chinese shipments are picking up after zero tons in August.

While cattle demand for feed barley remains strong, weaker export demand leaves higher ending stocks higher unless off-shore trade levels recover further.

Despite the harvest timing, Canadian barley export prices have remained stable, due to the increased pace of shipments and the limited selling from farmers, which has reduced liquidity. Domestic feed barley prices have stabilized after a dramatic decline, indicating the seasonal low may be in place. Imported US corn is not competitive (+USD30/tonne), which should keep demand for feed barley strong in the medium term.