Argentina: Current barley crop 2025 forecast reflects upper range of yield potential

Over the past two months moisture conditions across Argentina’s barley (and wheat) production area have turned favourable and provide a good early start to 2025. The consensus range of planted area estimates range between 1.15-1.25 mln hectares, and RMI Analytics’ current barley crop’25 forecast reflects the upper range of yield potential, at 4.9 mln tonnes.

From a crop’24 perspective, any quality variability has been managed effectively despite the lower demand for malting barley. Overall exports have been aided by the dramatic shift of exports to Middle East, as feed barley. The long-term export trend has been gradually downward trend, most recently influenced by the Chinese tariff on barley (2021), a boom for Argentina until the tariff was dropped and China’s return to being mainly supplied from Australia.

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