Canada: 2024-25 barley supply estimated 3% down from previous year and 9% below five-year average

For 2024-25, the Canadian barley supply is estimated at 9.4 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% from the last crop year due to lower production from smaller area, however carry-in stocks are sharply above last year’s level and the five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their March report.

The 2024-25 supply is also 9% below the five-year average.

Total exports for the entire season are projected at 2.9 Mt (approximately three quarters from grain exports and around one quarter from product exports), down 4% from last season and 13% below the five-year average. China remains the largest destination of grain exports, representing 70% of the volume, followed by Japan and the US. The US is the largest destination of malt exports, representing 60% of the volume, followed by Japan, Mexico, and South Korea. Total domestic use is projected at 5.7 Mt, up 3% year-on-year (y/y) despite a noticeable decline in supplies.

Carry-out stocks are forecast at 0.8 Mt, 32% lower y/y and close to historic lows, as a result of reduced supplies.

The Lethbridge average barley price recovered from a multi-year low of approximately C$255/tonne (t) in August, and reached approximately C$300/t since last December, bringing the to-date average to around C$285/t. The average price for the entire crop year is projected at $295/t, the lowest since 2021-22.

For 2025-26, Canadian barley area is projected by Statistics Canada (STC) at 2.5 million hectares (Mha), according to its March 11 seeding projections for the 2025-26 growing season. This represents a decrease of 2% in area y/y and 14% below the previous five-year average. By province, Alberta, the largest barley producing province, will have 1,339 thousand hectares (Kha) of barley (-6% y/y) seeded this spring, followed by Saskatchewan at 971 Kha (+4% y/y), Manitoba at 121 Kha (-4% y/y), while the remainder is seeded across the rest of Canada.

Production is projected at 8.1 Mt, down 1% from 2024-25 due to a smaller area along with a return to normal yields.

Supply is projected at 9.0 Mt, down 5% y/y due to lower production and carry-in stocks; it is also the lowest on record.

Partly due to the expected smaller supplies, forecasts for exports, total domestic use and carry-out stocks are lower than those projected for 2024-25.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at C$285/t, down C$10/t from 2024-25, due to pressure from expected lower US corn prices.

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