World: Barley crop forecast up 0.5 mln tonnes for 2024/25

Barley production forecast for 2024/25 is up 0.5 mln tonnes to 141.8 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their latest report. The changes consist of +0.2 mln tonnes in Canada’s crop size, and an increase of +0.5 mln tonnes for Australia as Western Australia’s crop improved as harvest was completed. The only offset being a slight reduction in Argentina, -0.2 mln tonnes, as the first half of harvest has shown some light-test weight and related yield losses.

With the demand situation still very weak globally, there are no changes to barley usage, and only a minor increase (0.1 mln) in export trade, the analysts said.

Australia’s east-coast faced rain during the final portion of harvest, and South America has seen wet conditions.

Despite the small increase in barley supply, ending stocks remain at a 10-year low. Further, the outcomes in the southern hemisphere are slightly disappointing as adverse weather is leading to a minor reduction in selection rates but overall weak demand makes this less an issue.

For malting barley the general price direction is downward, as evidenced by drops in Canada, Australia, and Argentina and with the French price the lone exception by being up slightly in a very quiet market.

For feed barley, the price movement pattern is similar, with French prices stronger but elsewhere prices are steady (Canada) to down (Australia and Argentina). Harvest pressure is clearly evident in Australia, and is starting to appear in Argentina as harvest final advances with clearing weather. Stronger corn prices is supporting feed barley as well.