Argentina: Barley crop forecast slightly increased thanks to improved weather

Heavy amounts of rainfall have fallen across key barley regions and further improve moisture levels after the drought impacts felt last year in some areas, RMI Analytics said in their late April report.

This is positive for crop 2024 planting which is soon to begin and gives optimism for a good start to the crop. A La Nina climate phenomenon is forecast to arrive in July/August, which is worrisome as farmers recall the crop 2022 drought impacts (due to the last La Nina event). With the improved situation, RMI’s production forecast is increased slightly (0.2 mln tonnes) to 4.7 mln tonnes.

Prices are up for both malting and feed barley, as farmer selling is virtually non-existent. Demand is present from both China and European destinations. Based upon reported licences, only around 50% of crop 2023 barley has been sold by farmers, who are now busy preparing for crop 2024 seeding. A lack of farmer selling is creating a liquidity challenge, but once farmers are finished seeding wheat and barley, a dramatic increase in farmer selling barley is anticipated.

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