Australia: Good soil moisture conditions boost potential for reasonable barley crop 2023 outcome in Australia
The potential for a reasonable barley crop 2023 outcome in eastern Australia is boosted by relatively good soil moisture conditions at present, RMI Analytics said in their latest report earlier this month.
Of course, the need for in-season rains remains essential, but a good soil moisture start correlates to a good crop potential (South and Western Australia are more reliant upon in-season rains), the analysts said.
On top of the 14.22 mln tonnes in 2022, the prospects for 10.5-11 mln tonnes is reasonable at this time. RMI Analytics’ estimate is unchanged for crop 2023 at 10.88 mln tonnes, at the upper end of estimates, but still a top 5 crop over the past 10 years.
One factor supporting barley planted area in Australia is the expansion of canola area has reached a near maximum level, within typical crop rotations and is slightly supportive to barley area going forward. Barley shipments are strong (previous business execution), and continue an amazing market development recovery from the May 2020 Chinese barley tariff.
Reportedly, trade talks between China and Australia have hit a ‘snag’ and although not specifically tied to barley, the end result appears to be a delay in resolving the differences between the countries. At the same time, Saudi feed barley tender business has dried up. Farmers are not selling as they anticipate a boost in prices, driven by an expected resolution of the trade dispute with China. This leaves barley prices (both malting and feed) unchanged to slightly lower in a very quiet market with limited liquidity.
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