Argentina: Current degree of farmer barley selling estimated at about 63% of the total 2022 crop

From a crop 2022 production of 3.8 mln tonnes, the current degree of farmer selling is 2.4 mln (about 63%) and thus with open domestic demand still requiring pricing and export volumes not yet declared, the crop 2022 is accounted for, RMI Analytics said in their early March report.

In crop 2023, farmers are concerned about the possible resolution of the Australia/China trade dispute and a reduction in feed and FAQ exports. This adds to the uncertainty regarding a new government (from the upcoming rejection) and what this could mean for the export tariff regime. Some farmers may prefer to grow wheat as opposed to barley, making the contracting of crop 2023 barley complicated. A sufficient malting barley premium must be maintained but will be aided by the dramatic reduction in input costs, as compared to a year ago, RMI analysts said.

A quiet barley market remains in place in Argentina with prices down slightly and as demand is mostly absent while farmers are not selling further volumes in any event. The Argentina government is permitting traders to delay corn export declarations as a means to relieve the current drought conditions. This could be bearish to corn prices and also transfer over to feed barley prices.

Regional beer volume growth was validated by Ambev, which reported 3% beverage volume growth in 2022 (Brazil +3.5%).

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