EU & UK: Barley production forecast to decline to 58.2 mln tonnes in 2026

In its first forecast for the 2026 crop, COCERAL estimates the total grain crop in the EU-27 plus the UK at 296.7 million tonnes, down from the 306.6 million tonnes harvested in 2025, as yields return to normal levels.

Wheat production (excluding durum) is expected at 143.9 million tonnes compared with 147.5 million tonnes in 2025.

Yields are expected to decrease from the exceptional levels seen in 2025 although rains over the past months have resulted in favorable soil moisture conditions, ensuring good crop development in many parts of the EU ahead of the winter. Wheat plantings are seen slightly higher than last year.

Barley production is forecast to decline to 58.2 million tonnes from 63.2 million, also due to a decline in yields to normal levels. The biggest drop in production is expected for Spain after yields have been excellent in 2025 and the UK, where the acreage should drop.

The 2026 corn crop should recover from the drought affected crop in 2025. However, since farmers have been disappointed by the corn yields in many of the last years, plantings probably will continue to shrink, particularly in the Balkan countries and France, with farmers switching to other spring crops, such as sunflowers and soybeans, COCERAL said.

If realized, the EU’s corn acreage would have decreased by around 15% since 2020, from more than 9 million hectares to below 8 million hectares.

Corn production in 2026 is forecast at 58.9 million tonnes, which compared with 57.1 million tonnes in 2025.

The rapeseed crop is forecast at 21.8 million tonnes, exactly in line with the 2025 crop. A return from the strong 2025 yields to average levels will be offset by a pronounced increase in plantings from 7.1 million hectares to 7.5 million hectares, COCERAL said.

During the normal planting window for rapeseeds in August and September, farmgate prices have been very attractive.