Argentina: Malting barley prices predicted to embark on gradual upward trend

The price trend for Argentina’s malting barley has been in a steady decline since early 2022, but has levelled to a certain degree over the past two years. This follows the wider global trend downward, but is influenced by changes in trade flows, particularly the end of the Chinese import tariff on Australian barley, RMI Analytics reported on March 20.

In response to a drop in Chinese exports, Argentina has recently shifted to supply of Saudi Arabia feed barley, while malting barley demand is almost non-existent. Firm feed barley prices are providing underlying support to malting barley prices.

The predicted path forward for Argentina malting barley is a gradual upward price trend, according to the RMI Predictive Barley Price Model. This upward move in prices is driven in part by the tighter global balance sheet, but also from the need for malting barley in Argentina to remain competitive to other crops, e.g. wheat. From a longer-term perspective, Argentina barley production has gradually increased, indicating a positive position with farmers.

Australia’s return to being the major supplier of barley (malting and feed/FAQ) to China creates a major challenge for Argentina. Development of alternative markets to replace Australia has become critical. Maintaining a reasonable malting barley premium (over feed) is essential in keeping a large proportion of malting barley varieties continue to be planted by Argentine farmers.

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