World: Barley crop 2025 expected to increase by 3.8 mln tonnes versus 2024

RMI Analytics have released their first look at barley crop’25.

The crop’24 production cycle draws to a close, with a only minor adjustment in global barley production to 141.7 mln tonnes, down 0.1 mln tonnes from the analysts’ previous report in late December. Harvest has been completed in Australia and down to the last 10% in Argentina, and the end result is a reasonably good outcome for the southern hemisphere.

With crop’24 supply now known, attention shifts to crop’25, where a rebound higher in production is forecast at 145.5 mln tonnes, +3.8 mln above the crop’24 result. Winter barley crops in Europe are progressing well and at the moment are expected to bounce back from the difficult crop - in France particularly.

Despite the rebound in supply, ending stocks are expected to decline 1.0 mln tonnes in crop’25, as production remains below total demand and drawing down stocks.

World crop’25 trade volumes are expected to increase toward the longer-term average as demand is expected to rebound somewhat.

Under the current weak demand environment, the crop result from 2024 has created a very comfortable situation, and an increase of nearly 4 mln tonnes in 2025 adds further stability, but ending stocks are still forecast at the lowest levels in 12 years.