Canada & USA: Barley crop forecast for Canada increased due to improvement in moisture conditions

Over the past two weeks, a dramatic improvement in moisture conditions took place in Canada. This moisture reversed the building drought conditions across parts of Canada and the US, RMI Analytics said in their early May report.

With this improvement, RMI’s crop forecast for Canada is increased by 0.3 mln tonnes to 9.6 mln.

For the US, the improved crop condition is more than offset by the expected reduction in planted area, triggered by weaker beer volumes. The result is a reduction in barley contracting volumes with farmers as the malt supply chain re-adjusts to the current environment. Note, this is occurring at a time when malt exports from Canada (offshore and to the US and Mexico) are improving over 2023 levels (but remain below 2022). This smaller US crop outcome would reduce ending stocks if any further demand recovery occurs.

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