Kazakhstan: Barley and wheat production 2023-24 expected to go down due to unfavourable weather

June drought followed by excessive rain in fall 2023 in Kazakhstan’s major grain growing region in the north is expected to severely cut the country’s wheat and barley production in marketing year 2023-24, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its Feb. 28 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, the FAS lowered its wheat 2023-24 harvest estimate for the Central Asian nation to 12.1 million tonnes, down 26% from the previous year’s 16.4 million tonnes. Barley production is forecast at 2.6 million tonnes, a decrease of 20% from 3.3 million tonnes.

“Wheat and barley quality are reported as significantly compromised, leading to a surplus of feed grade grain,” the FAS said. “While strong competition from Russia and lower milling quality has negatively impacted exports of wheat from Kazakhstan, barley exports have been supported by strong feed demand from new market entrant China.”

According to the industry representatives, only 21% of wheat in Kazakhstan from the current year qualifies as food grade, with 29% qualifying as feed grade and half of all wheat tested as nonclass. Barley quality likewise was hurt by the weather, and testing showed higher-than-normal presence of mycotoxins and aflatoxins.

From September to November in marketing year 2023-24, Kazakhstan exported 2.1 million tonnes of wheat and wheat flour, a 20% decrease from the same period a year ago. Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan remained the top three buyers.

Based on lower wheat production and strong demand from China for feed quality wheat, the FAS estimates wheat and wheat flour exports for 2023-24 to be 10 million tonnes, a 500,000-tonne- increase year-on-year. Barley exports are estimated to reach 1 million tonnes, up 125,000 tonnes from last year.

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