World: World barley balance sheet still remains comfortable despite smaller crop in 2023

Although crop 2023 production at 142.6 mln tonnes is nearly 10 mln tonnes lower than crop 2022, the balance sheet remains comfortable, despite production being the 3rd lowest in 10 years, RMI Analytics said in their late February report.

Weak demand and reduced trade leaves slower off-takes (and lower prices) for farmers. One early watch-out for crop 2024 is the delayed plantings in Europe (especially France) which pushes crop maturity into the high heat of summer.

The implications of a poor demand situation is a shift in crop 2024 seeding plans, as both maltsters and farmers adjust to the current reality by contracting lower barley volumes. Barley area will drop in some geographies.

The world’s barley market remains in a downward spiral, with prices down in all regions. Pressure continues to come from outside markets, where big wheat stocks in the Black Sea depress prices in Europe, and higher global corn production pushes the global feed complex lower. European wheat futures dropped below the EUR200/tonne level, for the first time in 2.5 years. For malting barley, Australia and Argentina are the most competitive origins, but Canada and France are trying to close the gap. This leaves the competition for any demand to be fiercely contested. Concerns this week about slow spring planting pace resulted in a price bounce higher, indicating a bottom may be forming, the analysts said.

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