Australia: Barley crop forecast further increased to 14.22 mln tonnes

Despite RMI Analytics’ increase in Australian barley crop 2022 forecast to 13.6 mln tonnes, the local feedback remains this number is still ‘quite low’ relative to the actual outcome. As a result, a further increase to 14.22 mln tonnes has been made to accurately reflect the crop reality, the analysts said in their February report.

As previously reported, Western Australia has a large and good quality crop, South Australia reasonable quality with minor issues to deal with (e.g. sizing, colour) but all manageable. In the east, there is sufficient quality for domestic maltsters and significant feed barley for export (including China, should the highly rumoured trade resolution be concluded).

At the peak of its trade to China (2017), Australia represented 70% of all Chinese barley imports, which quickly went to zero with the tariff in 2020, the RMI analysts remind.

Australian barley prices are up slightly as the local trade (along with everyone else) anticipates an announcement regarding the discussions between China/Australia (a process slower than most would prefer). Otherwise, the market is rather quiet from a new business perspective. From a demand perspective, there is little activity from Saudi buyers but Asian tenders for feed barley are occurring. In malting barley, there is ongoing demand in the market and with interest at the price levels.

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