Canada: Barley crop 2023 forecast to increase over 2022

Canada’s barley crop 2023 production will increase over 2022, due to increase in planted area, RMI Analytics forecast in their early February report.

In terms of soil moisture recovery ahead of crop 2023 planting, the winter season continues to be on the dry side across the key barley (and wheat) production regions in the USA and Canada. This situation will become more critical should it remain unchanged through April, when farmers begin preparing for planting operations.

Canadian barley prices are unchanged in a rather quiet market with the trade busy executing existing business. Compared to Europe and Australia, Canada is ‘high’ priced as the feed market remains quite strong. Some maltsters have stepped away from farmer contracting as brewer demand is currently absent.

Export pace for barley has slowed slightly, as China imported only 476 thousand tonnes in December, with Canada making up 307 thousand tonnes (-65%). Similar to others, the rumoured China and Australia trade resolution and its possible impact are a focus.

Canadian domestic feed barley prices are lower and starting to show a bit of much-anticipated weakness. At CAD420/tonne for February-March shipments, the spot market is CAD50/tonne higher than new crop feed barley offers (CAD370/tonne for September-December 2023 shipments).

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