Argentina: Barley yield results are falling slightly more negative than pre-harvest expectations

As harvest progressed into late December, Argentina’s barley yield results are falling slightly more negative than pre-harvest expectations, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

As a result, crop 2022 forecast is reduced to 3.8 mln tonnes (from 4 mln in the previous report in December), with the crop experiencing a wide range in quality. The barley protein range is wide but kernel sizing is near normal.

For crop 2023, RMI Analytics’ preliminary estimate is based upon yields returning to the five-year average but with a slight decline in planted area resulting in a 4.92 mln tonne crop, and a significant rebound.

Production continues to swing widely due to weather impacts and continued strong competition from wheat which limits the potential for barley area.

Barley prices are mostly unchanged as the industry assesses the crop outcome (e.g. proteins). With the smaller crop, farmers remain non-sellers and trade is currently very quiet.

The USDA names China as the distinct leading destination for Argentine barley exports. With the smaller crop result and variability in quality, a very big question remains: how does China respond to the current situation?

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