Australia: Weather and soil conditions remain positive for barley crop 2022

Weather and soil conditions remain positive for the crop 2022 season in Australia, RMI Analytics said in their late March report.

The experts’ crop 2022 forecast is down to 10 mln tonnes (from 11.1 mln tonnes in the early March report). The main driver for the reduction is the ongoing strength in wheat prices and very strong shipments. This is clear evidence of the world wheat supply chain adjusting to the Black Sea supply issues, a situation expected to continue into 2023. As a result, barley will struggle versus wheat for area which the analysts reflected in their production estimate. Barley exports also remain strong.

Vessel loading schedules are very busy for all crops, out into August 2022 and beyond. This makes barley offers difficult to obtain at the moment, as wheat fobbing rates are very high and therefore wheat is a priority to traders. The economics and strong global demand situation will keep wheat as the primary export commodity. Residual barley supply sits in eastern Australia without an easy solution for vessel loading, but the barley is there.

Prices are up for Australian malting barley while feed is unchanged. Local view is the Chinese barley tariff does not change.

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