World: Spring barley may turn out a winner in 2022 thanks to its small input cost
World grain and oilseed markets are on a bull run once again. The worst supply & demand problems have switched from corn and soybeans to wheat, barley, oats and canola. Supplies of durum, milling wheat and malting barley are short, also feed wheat and feed barley are tight in the northern hemisphere. Good crops in Argentina and Australia will probably alleviate the wheat and barley situation to some extent, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their November report.
After a brief period of weakness in mid-October, all grain exchanges and physical markets have shown a remarkable strength to-date. Matif and CBoT wheat quotes are at their highs of the year.
Smaller crops face a larger demand for food, starch, ethanol and bio-diesel. The high cost of energy, crude oil, natural gas and coal creates additional demand in the grain and oilseed sector.
The continuing disturbances created by the corona crisis have driven bulk and container freight to astronomic levels, have overburdened port capacities, truck transport and led to interrupted supply chains in the world economy.
EU inflation has risen above 4 %; it is much worse in other countries, e.g. China, Russia, Iran, Turkey. Export taxes (Russia), quotas, prohibitions affect and disturb world markets. The high cost of energy has reduced production and driven up prices of fertilizer to a point, where farmers even consider to idle acreage, but also to select cost-saving crops. Spring barley with its smaller input cost may turn out a winner in 2022.
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