EU: Malting barley supply and demand balance still looks tight
Among the leading spring malting barley producing countries in the EU, only France, Denmark, and Sweden are expected to report surplus quantities after covering domestic demand, H. M. Gauger GmbH said in their June report.
France’s spring malting barley crop is forecast at 3.8 mln tonnes this year, with domestic demand seen at 850 thousand tonnes, the exportable surplus is expected to reach 1.85 mln tonnes.
Denmark is forecast to use domestically 300 thousand tonnes of barley out of its 3.2 mln crop, thus the exportable surplus is seen at 1 mln tonnes.
In Sweden, barley crop is forecast at 1.3 mln tonnes, domestic consumption at 200 thousand tonnes, so the exportable surplus is forecast at 200 thousand tonnes.
Germany’s spring barley crop is seen at 1.55 mln tonnes but demand at 2.2 mln tonnes is expected to outstrip that, so the import needs will be about 2.2 mln tonnes.
The UK is expected to harvest 4.5 mln tonnes, its demand is forecast at 1.7 mln, thus exportable surplus may reach 250 thousand tonnes.
The total exportable surplus of barley in the EU’s central barley and malt countries + the UK is forecast at 900 thousand tonnes.
Poland reports a very small acreage and production of spring malting barley, as feed varieties
are preferred by local farmers. Some imports are likely in Central Europe and Spain.
First forecasts of the Spanish barley crop range from 9.0 to 10.0 mln tonnes vs. 12.3 mln last year.
As much of the French surplus will flow to China, the S/D balance looks tight. Relief can come from a larger selection percentages of malting barley and from larger usage of winter barley. Most EU farmers abstain from selling their barley crops yet.
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