World: China�s demand leads to increased world barley trade forecast

China import demand for coarse grains is not limited to corn and sorghum. This month, barley imports are forecast higher, reflecting trade to date. For the first 7 months in 2020/21 (Oct-Sep), imports totalled 7.0 million tonnes, well above previous years’ levels, USDA said in their June report.

Imported barley, mainly from Canada, the European Union, and Ukraine, has been used in the domestic beer industry and as a substitute for corn in feed rations, particularly in the southern region. Barley imports are not subject to a tariff-rate quota and are therefore administratively less burdensome.

With greater demand from China, global barley imports are forecast higher for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 from last month. While the antidumping and countervailing duties on barley from Australia remain in place, China has been successful in securing alternative sources for barley. Meanwhile, barley from Australia has found new markets around the world, primarily in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Mexico. In the Red Sea, ships carrying barley from the European Union and Ukraine to China are crossing paths with ships loaded with Australian barley destined for the Middle East. These trade dynamics are likely to be in place for a few more years due to China’s 5-year action on barley from Australia.