Argentina: Barley crop forecast drops on competition for area from wheat and wet start to planting season

Northern Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil have experienced heavy rainfall, leading to flooding in areas. This excessive rain may delay planting and if wet conditions continue, reduce total planted area.

For barley, the key region of southern Buenos Aires Province was less impacted and has good soil moisture as planting commences. Competition for area from wheat is strong, and this wet start could impact yield potential. Thus, RMI Analytics’ barley crop’25 forecast for Argentina is reduced to 4.7 mln tonnes.

Export licence declarations are mostly unchanged as new trade is limited. The special export tax rate for barley, initially set to expire in June, has now been extended until March 2026. Farmer selling remains limited, leading to increased prices on a FOB basis. Although buying interest exists at lower price points, there is minimal new trade reported. Farmer FAS prices are lower, but higher prices are noted if the trade needs to fulfil export volumes, the analysts believe.

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