World: Barley crop forecast up 1.5 mln tonnes to 153.7 mln

The forecast for global barley production 2025/26 is increased by an additional +1.5 mln tonnes, reaching a total of 153.7 mln tonnes, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

The most significant increase came from Canada, contributing +0.7 mln tonnes, along with smaller gains reported from Russia, the EU-27, China, India, and Algeria. The result is the third largest barley supply in 12 years, with ending stocks rising further as overall demand growth lags significantly the increase in supply.

Global trade is expected to increase slightly during crop’25, as major production regions fulfil higher anticipated demand from major importers like China, north Africa, and the Middle East. Despite this demand boost, ending stocks are to increase by 4 mln tonnes in crop’25, the analysts believe.

Recent late-season increases in global barley production contribute to an already ample supply situation. In terms of malting barley selection rates, the quality is deemed to be average, with only minor quality variability to address.

The current barley market presents a mixed landscape. European prices are declining as the holidays approach, while other regions remain stable or even show signs of recovery. French malting barley prices are now the low-cost malting barley origin on a FOB basis. Meanwhile, Australian prices are on the rise, and Argentina and Canada are generally steady. The weak demand environment, compounded by both announced and rumoured malting closures in Europe, is significantly impacting the market. Feed barley values in Europe are also softening as 2025 closes out.