Australia: Barley crop forecast up 0.3 mln tonnes due to better harvest results in Western Australia, New South Wales

Barley harvest has encountered delays in Victoria and South Australia under moderate to heavy rainfall, but the forecast is clearing for the next week, with harvest pace expected to increase, RMI Analytics said in their latest report.

RMI’s forecast for Australian barley is up 0.3 mln tonnes to 15.3 mln tonnes, due to better harvest results in Western Australia and New South Wales, while Victoria and South Australia delays leave a question about the final crop result. Local estimate hint at higher yields.

Exports are lower, mainly due to a lack of supply from harvest delays.

Australian barley prices are slightly higher, with the exception of Geelong’s malting barley, which has decreased a bit. Currently, harvest delays in South Australia and Victoria are supporting prices; however, improving weather conditions are expected to facilitate harvesting. Buyers (i.e. China) anticipate a large crop and increased harvest pressure on prices, leading to lower price expectations. At the same time, farmers are reluctant to sell at this moment, resulting in a liquidity gap.