Canada: 2024-25 barley supply down 3% yoy

For 2024-25, Canada’s barley supply amounted to 9.5 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% year-over-year (y/y) and 8% below the five-year average, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their October report.

Total exports reached 2.8 Mt (2.1 Mt for grain exports and 0.74 Mt for product exports), down significantly y/y and well below the average. Top export markets for barley grain include China (representing about 70% of the grain exports), Japan (20%), and the US (10%). Top export markets for barley products include the US (60%), Japan (20%), and Mexico (15%).

Total domestic use hit 5.4 Mt (5.1 Mt for feed use and 0.3 Mt for other uses), down noticeably from the previous year and the average. As a result, carry-out stocks climbed to an eight-year high of 1.2 Mt, despite lower supplies.

The Lethbridge feed barley price for the crop year averaged C$296/tonne (/t), down nearly C$20/t y/y and the lowest in four years.

For 2025-26, Statistics Canada (STC) estimates 2.5 million hectares (Mha) were seeded to barley in its June seeded acreage report; this represents a decrease of 4% y/y and 16% compared to the five-year average. By province, Alberta accounts for 54% of the national area, followed by Saskatchewan (37%) and Manitoba (5%).

STC’s September model-based estimates put 2025 barley production at 8.2 Mt, slightly higher than last year, thanks to an expected improvement in the average yield, despite a smaller sown area and a higher abandonment rate. As of September 23, 87% of Alberta’s barley crop had been combined. 61% of the harvested barley crop in the province was rated as No.1 C.W. (Canada Western), 7 points above the five-year average, according to the Alberta’s Crop Report. The report also indicates that the province’s average yield is above last year’s level, the five-year average, and STC’s modeled estimate.

Supply is projected at 9.5 Mt, little changed y/y, thanks to carry-in stocks at an eight-year high and higher-than-expected production, which offset the decline in imports. However, supply for 2025 remains 4% below the five-year average. Total domestic use is forecast to increase on higher feed demand. Total exports are forecast to be little changed y/y, but well below average. Carry-out stocks are projected at 1.0 Mt, down y/y, but still well above average.

The 2025-26 Lethbridge average feed barley price is projected at C$270/t, down over C$25/t from 2024-25, partly due to pressure from expected lower US corn prices.

Worldwide, Australia’s barley production for 2025-26 is forecast at 14.6 Mt by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). This is up 10% y/y and well above the five-year average. The EU’s barley production for 2025-26 is forecast by the European Commission at 55.7 Mt. This is up 14% y/y and well above the five-year average.