Canada: 2024-25 barley supplies down 3% from previous year

For 2024-25, Canada’s barley supplies amounted to 9.5 million tonnes (Mt), down 3% from the previous year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their September report.

Despite an increase in the national average yield, production was 9% lower year-over-year (y/y) on reduced seeded and harvested area. Total domestic use, at 5.4 Mt, fell 12% lower than the previous fiveyear average, with 94% of total demand stemming from the feed sector. Barley exports fell to a sevenyear low of 2.8 Mt. As a result, carry-out stocks climbed to an eight-year high of 1.2 Mt, despite lower supplies.

The Lethbridge feed barley price for 2024-25 averaged at C$296/tonne (/t).

For 2025-26, Statistics Canada (STC) estimates 2.5 million hectares (Mha) was seeded to barley, 4% and 16% lower than last year and the five-year average, respectively. By province, Alberta accounts for 54% of the national area, followed by Saskatchewan (37%) and Manitoba (5%).

According to STC’s latest model-based yield estimates, production is forecast at 8.2 Mt, slightly higher than last year but 8% lower than the five-year average. Growing conditions for Canadian barley producers have been variable this season, with widespread drought affecting much of the Prairies. However, areas that have received timely, adequate precipitation are expected to do well. As of September 9, 61% of Alberta’s barley crop is rated as No.1 C.W. (Canada Western), 4 points above the five-year average, according to official provincial statistics.

Barley supplies for the year are forecast at 9.5 Mt, slightly higher than last year and just short of the five-year average by 3%. Total domestic use is forecast 6% higher than last year, at 5.7 Mt, as feed demand is expected to rise.

Total exports are forecast at 2.8 Mt, on par with last year but 15% lower than the five-year average. Carry-out stocks are forecast to finish the year at 1 Mt, 20% below last year’s level but well above the 2021-22 low of 0.54 Mt.

The average barley price in Lethbridge is forecast at C$285/t for 2025-26, under pressure from lower US corn prices and plentiful feed grain supplies.

In their latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) left domestic barley supply and disposition mostly unchanged from August, with the exception of a slight increase in exports. US barley carry-out has been lowered accordingly to 67 Mt. The average farm price remains forecast at US$5.30/bushel (US$243/t).

World barley production is forecast by the USDA at 147.3 Mt, rising 3% from last year. The projection was raised this month on increased output expected for Australia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, offsetting lower expectations for Russian production. Supplies are forecast at 196 Mt, up from last year’s 194.6 Mt and world barley trade is forecast higher. Ending stocks are expected to rise from last year’s 18.9 Mt to 19.2 Mt.